India is the most populous country in the world. The catch? No-one knows the population

India is one of the most popular travel destinations in the world. In fact, data compiled from Google searches for flights, hotels and vacations was released last year showing that the country is the second-most visited destination worldwide. And although there is plenty of information about the number of tourists visiting India at the ready, the same can’t be said about the population of India itself. In fact, no-one actually knows just how many people are living in India currently.

The United Nations recently calculated that there are probably more people living in India than in China, making it the most populous nation on the planet. The catch, though, is that no-one actually knows for sure how many people are living in India, because no-one has counted the indubitably massive population in over a decade. 

The country’s last census took place in 2011. It was a multi-year process that counted 1.21 billion citizens. The UN has estimated that India’s population will surpass 1.4 billion by April 14, 2023. 

The next census to count and gather data on those new 210 million people (along with everyone else) was supposed to take place in 2021, but was derailed by the pandemic. Two years later, it’s still unclear when the counting will begin.

It’s not a cheap undertaking—the original estimate was just over USD$1 billion. But funding isn’t the hurdle preventing India from going out and getting the cold hard numbers to back up their likely status as the world’s biggest population. 

Ultimately, the problem lies in determining who will do the counting. The plan currently requires 330,000 public school teachers to conduct house-by-house surveys, which involve multiple visits and extensive interviews. It’s an established part of their job, but the teachers already have a number of state and federal elections on their plate for 2023 and 2024. At this point, the workload of their civic responsibilities could interfere with, you know, actual teaching, and there’s a growing feeling among many that they aren’t being paid enough for all their work. 

Arvind Mishra, a senior official at the All-Indian Primary Teachers Federation, told Reuters, “They must roll out a systematic payment mechanism for the drill. Teachers deserve respect and yet they can’t be running around demanding reimbursement for conducting the largest counting exercise on earth.”

Members of the largest opposition party to Prime Minister Modi’s government have also accused the administration of dragging their feet on the census to keep potentially politically damning stats on unemployment and literacy levels to come out before the 2024 elections. The Prime Minister’s party has refuted these accusations, saying it’s taking longer than expected to get the counting software up and running.

An accurate headcount wouldn’t just establish a world record—the importance lies in the implications it can address. The outdated census data also have very real impacts on the lives of Indians and the country’s infrastructure, since government departments that provide essential services are working from outdated data. Government officials told Reuters that the estimates they use to make policy and allot government spending are likely “far from reality.” 

But counted or not, India’s population has grown and is still growing since its last census. So in just a few weeks, the answer to the question, “What’s the most populated country?” at your trivia night will rightly be, “Probably India.”